Wildfires and severe thunderstorms in the US drive global insured losses to USD 80 billion in first half of 2025, Swiss Re Institute estimates
Global insured losses from natural catastrophes reach USD 80 billion in the first half of 2025 according to Swiss Re Institute’s preliminary estimates. This is almost double the 10-year average and more than half of the USD 150 billion (in 2025 prices) projected for the full year, following the long-term annual growth trend of 5–7%. With natural catastrophe activity typically higher in the second half of the year, total insured losses for 2025 could therefore exceed the projection.
The wildfires that swept through parts of Los Angeles County in January constitute the largest-ever insured wildfire loss event by far, resulting in estimated insured losses of USD 40 billion. This exceptional loss severity was due to a prolonged Santa Ana winds season coupled with a lack of rainfall, allowing the fires to spread rapidly and destroy more than 16 000 structures in an area with some of the densest concentration of high-value single-family residential property in the US.Losses from wildfires have risen sharply over the past decade as rising temperatures, more frequent droughts and changing rainfall patterns converge with suburban sprawl and high-value asset concentration. Before 2015, wildfire-related insured losses made up around 1% of all natural catastrophe claims. With eight of the ten costliest wildfire events on record occurring in the past ten years, the share of insured losses related to wildfires has increased to 7%.
Wildfires are an ever-present hazard in hot and dry regions with large areas of vegetation, such as there are in North America. The single biggest loss growth driver for this peril is increased exposure in such hazardous regions. Due to the combination of high hazard and high value asset 2/4 concentration, most fire losses originate in the US and particularly in California, where expansion in hazardous regions has been high. Since 1990, exposure growth in the high-risk wildland urban interface (WUI) zones has outpaced exposure growth in non-WUI zones by a factor of 1.8 in the US, and by a factor of 1.9 in California.
Severe thunderstorms continue to be major loss driver
Insured losses from severe thunderstorms (severe convective storms, SCS) amounted to USD 31 billion in the first half of 2025. While the year saw several damaging thunderstorms with large hail and tornado outbreaks in the US, the overall SCS-triggered losses fell below both Swiss Re Institute’s trend estimate of USD 35 billion and the recordbreaking events of 2023 and 2024. Nevertheless, SCS continue to be a major driver of global natural catastrophe insured losses, with year-onyear volatility underscoring their persistent threat to property and infrastructure.
Urbanisation in hazard-prone areas, rising asset values and inflation have amplified the financial impact of severe thunderstorms. As exposure continues to grow and reconstruction becomes more expensive, Swiss Re Institute expects losses from this peril to increase over time.
Jérôme Haegeli, Swiss Re’s Group Chief Economist, says: “The strongest lever to increase the resilience and safety of communities is to double down on mitigation and adaptation. It’s here that everyone can help reduce losses before they occur. While mitigation and adaptation measures come at a price, our research shows that, for example, flood protection measures such as dykes, dams and flood gates are up to ten times more cost-effective than rebuilding.”
Further examples for adaptation measures include enforcing building codes, strengthening zoning laws, increasing flood protection and discouraging settlement in areas prone to natural perils.
The magnitude 7.7 earthquake that hit Myanmar in March was a human tragedy, resulting in a high number of fatalities. Shockwaves were felt as far away as Thailand, India and China, causing estimated insured losses of USD 1.5 billion in Thailand alone.
Focus on hurricane season in second half of 2025
The second half of the year started with the warming effects of a major heat dome that led to temperatures in excess of 40°C in western and central Europe in late June, and with wildfire outbreaks in several countries. In the US, torrential rains led to catastrophic flash flooding in central Texas in July.
With the US season for SCS past its peak, the focus for the second half of the year shifts to the North Atlantic hurricane season that typically peaks in early September. Forecasts indicate near- to above-average activity, with three to five major hurricanes – above the long-term average of three.
For insurers and exposed communities, the key factor determining the scale of losses is where a hurricane hits. The 20-year anniversary of 3/4 Hurricane Katrina serves as a reminder that tropical cyclones, in particular major hurricanes, pose substantial risk to the eastern and Gulf Coasts of North America, as well as the Caribbean. For coastal communities, preparation and advance resilience are essential to minimise the impact.
Balz Grollimund, Swiss Re’s Head Catastrophe Perils, says: “Reinsurers not only act as a shock absorber for peak risks. They also have a crucial role to help the world prepare and respond to the growing natural catastrophe risk by understanding, quantifying and transferring the risk. Their models and tools pave the way for partnerships in public and private sectors that provide innovative, practical answers and help communities get back on their feet faster.”
With 60% of annual natural catastrophe insured losses historically occurring in the second half of the year, the period ahead remains fraught with uncertainty. Losses fluctuate greatly year-on-year, with random fluctuations mostly due to natural weather variability. Should current loss trends continue, global insured losses from natural catastrophes in 2025 could exceed Swiss Re Institute’s projections of USD 150 billion in 2025 prices. However, this outcome remains contingent on the evolution of major perils in the coming months.
Total economic and insured losses in H1 2025 and H1 2024
USD billion
H1 2025
H1 2024
H1 10-y avg*
% change vs 10-y avg
Economic losses
143
130
106
35%
Nat cat
138
123
99
36%
Man-made
8
8
7
14%
Insured losses
87
69
47
85%
Nat cat
80
62
41
95%
Man-made
7
7
6
17%
*Note: H1 10-year average refers to the average first-half losses between 2015 and 2024
Hurricanes, severe thunderstorms and floods drive insured losses above USD 100 billion for 5th consecutive year, says Swiss Re Institute
Estimated insured losses from natural catastrophes on track to exceed USD 135 billion in 2024
Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton severely impacted the US, resulting in estimated insured losses approaching USD 50 billion
Major floods hit Europe and the Middle East, causing estimated insured losses of close to USD 13 billion as of today
With 1.54°C above the pre-industrial average, 2024 is set to become the hottest year on record. A warming climate favours the occurrence of many of the natural catastrophes observed in 2024. Europe, in particular, has experienced intense flooding in 2024, resulting in the second-highest insured losses from floods in the region ever, according to Swiss Re Institute’s estimates. The US has been affected by two major hurricanes and a high frequency of severe thunderstorms, making up at least two thirds of 2024’s global insured losses of more than USD 135 billion as of today’s estimates.
Balz Grollimund, Swiss Re’s Head Catastrophe Perils, says: “For the fifth consecutive year, insured losses from natural catastrophes break the USD-100-billion mark. Much of this increasing loss burden results from value concentration in urban areas, economic growth, and increasing rebuilding costs. By favouring the conditions leading to many of this year’s catastrophes, climate change is also playing an increasing role. This is why investing in mitigation and adaptation measures must become a priority.”
Flood risk is rising globally
In 2024, severe floods in Europe and the UAE resulted in estimated insured losses of close to USD 13 billion to date. It was the third-costliest year for this peril globally and the second costliest for Europe which experienced insured losses of approximately USD 10 billion, according to Swiss Re Institute’s estimates.
Intense precipitation in April caused floods in the Gulf region, disrupting the operations of the world’s busiest airport of Dubai. In September, Storm Boris caused major floods in Central Europe, mainly affecting the Czech Republic, Poland and Austria. Additional impacts were reported from Slovakia, Romania, Italy and Croatia. While so-called Vb lows – slow-moving, low-pressure systems – are nothing unusual in the region, the strong intensity of the Vb system connected to Storm Boris is favoured by conditions related to climate change. Storm Boris mixed cold Arctic air flowing southwards with unusually warm air from the east and south, drawing moisture from a record-breaking warm Mediterranean Sea.
In October, large parts of Spain experienced heavy rainfall, flash floods and hailstorms, which caused severe damage. The floods were worst in eastern and southern Spain, with most of the damage across the Valencia and Castilla-La Mancha regions. Andalusia and the Balearic Islands were also affected. One year’s average precipitation was dumped in less than eight hours in many locations. Steep clay terrain and drainage systems could not absorb the exceptional amount of water, leading to fast overflows.
Pluvial floods can severely affect urban areas
Floods come in varied forms. The most common are fluvial and pluvial floods, and in coastal areas, storm surge floods. Fluvial floods can happen after periods of heavy rainfall. They usually affect areas close to rivers where flood waves can build up gradually or rapidly and last for a longer period. Pluvial floods can happen anywhere and affect all kinds of (urban) areas. They cause flash floods after extreme rainfall in a short period of time because large parts of soil are sealed and therefore cannot absorb the excess of water as drainage systems are overwhelmed. Floods can also manifest as secondary effects of primary perils. This is the case for tropical-cyclone-induced flooding from storm surge and rainfall.
Jérôme Jean Haegeli, Swiss Re’s Group Chief Economist, says: “Economic development continues to be the main driver of the rise in insured losses resulting from floods, but also other perils, seen over many decades. However, with natural catastrophe risks rising and higher price levels, the annual increase of 5–7% in insured losses will continue, and protection gaps could remain high. This highlights the need for adaptation in combination with an adequate insurance coverage that can support financial resilience.”
Losses are likely to increase as climate change intensifies extreme weather events while asset values increase in high-risk areas due to urban sprawl. Adaptation is therefore key, and protective measures, such as dykes, dams and flood gates, are up to ten times more cost-effective than rebuilding.
2024: Hurricanes and severe thunderstorms, with US hardest hit
At least two thirds of this year’s insured losses are attributable to the US: Two major hurricanes made landfall within a fortnight on the coast of Florida in September and October this year. Hurricane Helene made landfall as a major hurricane on 27 September, followed by Hurricane Milton on 9 October. Insured losses from both hurricanes are expected to amount to below USD 50 billion as of today. Additionally, 2024 experienced a high frequency of severe thunderstorms (severe convective storms, or SCS), which affected mostly the US. Insured losses from SCS are expected to add more than USD 51 billion globally for 2024 as of today, the second-highest loss after the record high of approximately USD 70 billion in 2023.
Table 1: Estimated total economic and insured losses in 2024 and 2023
(USD billion in 2024 prices)
2024
2023
Annual change
Previous10-y average
Economic losses (total)
320
302
6%
254
Nat cat
310
291
6%
241
Man-made
10
11
–8%
13
Insured losses (total)
144
125
16%
108
Nat cat
135
115
17%
98
Man-made
9
10
–7%
10
Source: Swiss Re Institute