Allianz: Shipping losses hit a record low in 2022, but jump in fires, shadow tanker fleet and economic uncertainty pose new safety challenges
Shipping transports around 90% of world trade onboard different vessels so maritime safety is critical. Improvements have been significant over the past decade, culminating in the sector reporting a record low number of large ships lost over the past year. However, a combination of factors impacting fire risk, ongoing and new threats posed by the ripple effects of the Ukraine conflict, decarbonization challenges, economic uncertainty, as well as the rising cost of marine claims, means the sector still has plenty of obstacles to navigate over the next 12 months and beyond, according to insurer Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty SE’s (AGCS) Safety & Shipping Review 2023.
“Shipping losses have sunk to the lowest number we have seen in the 12-year history of our annual study reflecting the positive impact safety programs, trainings, changes in ship design and regulation have had over time,” says Captain Rahul Khanna, Global Head of Marine Risk Consulting at AGCS. “While these results are gratifying, several clouds appear on the horizon. More than a year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the growth of the shadow oil tanker fleet is the latest consequence to challenge shipowners, their crew and insurers. Fire safety and the problem of mis-declaration of hazardous cargo must be fixed if the industry is to benefit from the efficiency of ever- larger vessels. Inflation is pushing up the cost of hull, machinery and cargo claims. Meanwhile, although the industry’s decarbonization efforts are progressing, this remains by far the sector’s biggest challenge. Economic pressures could put vital investments in companies’ strategies, as well as in other safety initiatives, in jeopardy.”
Every year AGCS analyzes reported shipping losses and casualties (incidents) involving ships over 100 gross tons. During 2022, 38 total losses of vessels were reported globally, compared with 59 a year earlier. This represents a 65% decline in annual losses over 10 years (109 in 2013). Thirty years ago, the global fleet was losing 200+ vessels a year.
According to the report, there have been more than 800 total losses over the past decade (807). South China, Indochina, Indonesia, and the Philippines maritime region is the global loss hotspot, both over the past year and decade (204 total losses). It accounted for one-in-five losses in 2022 (10) driven by factors including high levels of trade, congested ports, older fleets and extreme weather. The Arabian Gulf, British Isles and West Mediterranean waters were the second top loss locations (3). Around a quarter of vessels lost in 2022 were cargo (10). Foundered (sunk/submerged) was the main cause of total loss across all vessel types (20), accounting for over 50%. Fire/explosion ranked as the second top cause of loss (8). Vessel collision third (4).
While total losses declined over the past year, the number of shipping casualties or incidents reported remained consistent (3,032 in 2022 compared to 3,000 in 2021). The British Isles saw the highest number (679). Machinery damage or failure accounted for close to half of all incidents globally (1,478). There were over 200 fires reported during 2022 (209) – the highest number for a decade, making this the third top cause of incidents globally, up 17% year-on-year.
Hull and cargo fire risks continue to concern
Several factors are increasing the risk of fires at sea and on land. Decarbonization is leading to new types of cargo being transported on vessels, such as electric vehicles (EVs) and battery-powered goods. Potentially highly flammable lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries pose a growing risk for container shipping and car carriers. This battery market is expected to grow by over 30% annually over the next decade.
One of the main hazards of Li-ion batteries is ‘thermal runaway’, a rapid self-heating fire that can cause an explosion. The main causes of Li-ion fires are substandard manufacturing or damaged battery cells or devices, over-charging and short-circuiting. Fires in EVs with Li-ion batteries are difficult to extinguish and capable of spontaneously reigniting. “Most ships lack the suitable protection, detection and firefighting capabilities to tackle such fires at sea,” says Khanna. “Attention must focus both on pre-emptive measures and emergency plans to help mitigate this peril such as adequate crew training and access to appropriate firefighting equipment or improving early detection systems. Purpose-built vessels for transporting EVs would be advantageous.”
At the same time, hazardous cargos are increasingly transported by increasingly larger vessels. Container carrying capacity has doubled in the last 20 years. The 10 largest container operators have more than 400 new vessels on order and the majority will be larger than the ships they replace. Consequently, the impact of fires is amplified, potentially resulting in more severe losses. Fire is already one of the most frequent causes of total losses across all vessel types with 64 ships lost in the past five years alone. Meanwhile, AGCS analysis of close to 250,000 marine insurance industry claims shows that fire was also the most expensive cause of loss, accounting for 18% of the value of all claims analyzed.
Industry reporting systems attribute around 25% of serious incidents onboard container ships to mis-declared dangerous goods, such as chemicals, batteries, and charcoal, although many believe this number to be higher. “Failure to properly declare, document and pack hazardous cargo can contribute to blazes or hamper firefighting efforts,” Khanna explains. “Labeling a cargo as dangerous is more expensive. Therefore, some companies try to circumvent this by labeling fireworks as toys or Li-ion batteries as computer parts, for example.” Several large container shipping companies have turned to technology to address this issue using cargo screening software to detect suspicious bookings and cargo details, while large container operators are imposing penalties. “Unified requirements and penalties for mis-declared hazardous cargo would be welcomed,” says Khanna.
Ukraine and oil sanctions: growth of shadow tanker fleet latest safety concern
More than a year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the ripple effects for shipping continue to be felt. The threat of collateral damage on civilian shipping in or around the war risk area remains high and could stem from floating mines for example.
Oil sanctions have also resulted in Russia and its allies creating a shadow tanker fleet to transport and sell its oil. Estimates of its size vary – as many as 600 vessels. “The shadow fleet is more likely to be made up of older ships, operating under flags of convenience with lower maintenance standards,” explains Justus Heinrich, Global Product Leader Marine Hull at AGCS. “The increase in their number is a worrying development, threatening the world fleet and the environment. A major incident can cause loss of life as well as uninsured damage or pollution.” In May 2023 an uninsured, unladen 1997-built tanker, Pablo, exploded in Southeast Asia, reportedly killing crew.
Decarbonization the sector’s biggest challenge
Shipping contributes around 3% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions annually and is committed to tough targets to cut these. The pace and progress of its efforts are influenced by technological developments, adoption of energy-efficient fuels, regulation and market forces. Shipping companies and cargo operators are already switching to vessels powered by liquefied natural gas and are using and trialing alternative fuels such as biofuels, methanol, ammonia and hydrogen, as well as solar and battery-powered all-electric vessels, wind-assisted propulsion systems, more efficient propellers and bulbous bow designs.
Transitioning away from carbon-based shipping will involve a demanding period of change and significant investment of about $1.4trn. A mix of fuels is likely to exist for the next five to 10 years, posing challenges for shipowners, operators and ports. From a loss perspective the industry has not yet seen any major claims from alternative technologies or fuels. However, as these are introduced at scale, more issues may surface. “Collaboration is key and regular exchanges of information and data between companies and insurers from testing and experiences will be important in helping to reduce transition risks,” says Heinrich.
Economic pressures back on the radar
Following the post-pandemic boom in container shipping, economic and geopolitical uncertainty and falling demand have hit freight rates. The cost of shipping a container between Asia and the United States or Europe in April 2023 was more than 80% lower than a year earlier. “The question is whether this decline, together with the prospect of an economic downturn, will impact maintenance and risk management budgets. Prior downturns have impacted these, leading to losses and an uptick in machinery damage incidents.,” says Heinrich.
Factors impacting the cost of claims
Increased commodity prices, higher labor costs and supply chain disruption have had a significant impact on marine insurance claims, in particular hull and machinery. “The price of steel, a key cost driver in hull claims, increased sharply post-pandemic, as did spare parts. A typical propeller or machinery claim now costs around two times more than pre-pandemic,” explains Régis Broudin, Global Head of Marine Claims at AGCS. “Shortages and delays in obtaining replacement parts have also led to longer stays in repair yards while labor shortages have also increased costs. This comes on top of the increased expense of dealing with large vessels, which face higher costs for repairs, salvage and towing.” The post-pandemic boom in container shipping has also impacted. Cargo values have risen with the increase in the price of goods and raw materials. “Even companies with the best risk management will see the impact of inflation on claims,” concludes Broudin.
Allianz: Shipping losses fall, but Ukraine war, costly issues with large vessels, the shipping boom, and sustainability concerns muddy the waters
The international shipping industry is responsible for the carriage of around 90% of world trade, so vessel safety is critical. The sector continued its long-term positive safety trend over the past year but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the growing number of costly issues involving larger vessels, crew and port congestion challenges resulting from the shipping boom, and managing challenging decarbonization targets, means there is no room for complacency, according to marine insurer Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty SE’s (AGCS)Safety & Shipping Review 2022
“The shipping sector has demonstrated tremendous resilience through stormy seas in recent years, as evidenced by the boom we see in several parts of the industry today,” says Captain Rahul Khanna, Global Head of Marine Risk Consulting at AGCS. “Total losses are at record lows – around 50 to 75 a year over the last four years compared with 200+ annually in the 1990s. However, the tragic situation in Ukraine has caused widespread disruption in the Black Sea and elsewhere, exacerbating ongoing supply chain, port congestion, and crew crisis issues caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. At the same time, some of the industry’s responses to the shipping boom, such as changing the use of, or extending the working life of, vessels also raise warning flags. Meanwhile, the increasing number of problems posed by large vessels, such as fires, groundings and complex salvage operations, continue to challenge ship owners and their crews.”
The annual AGCS studyanalyzes reported shipping losses and casualties (incidents) over 100 gross tons. During 2021, 54 total losses of vessels were reported globally, compared with 65 a year earlier. This represents a 57% decline over 10 years (127 in 2012), while during the early 1990s the global fleet was losing 200+ vessels a year. The 2021 loss total is made more impressive by the fact that there are an estimated 130,000 ships in the global fleet today, compared with some 80,000 30 years ago. Such progress reflects the increased focus on safety measures over time through training and safety programs, improved ship design, technology and regulation.
According to the report, there have been almost 900 total losses over the past decade (892). The South China, Indochina, Indonesia, and the Philippines maritime region is the main global loss hotspot, accounting for one-in-five losses in 2021 (12) and one-in-four-losses over the past decade (225), driven by factors including high levels of trade, congested ports, older fleets, and extreme weather. Globally, cargo ships (27) account for half of vessels lost in the past year and 40% over the past decade. Foundered (sunk/submerged) was the main cause of total losses over the past year, accounting for 60% (32).
While total losses declined over the past year, the number of reported shipping casualties or incidents rose. The British Isles saw the highest number (668 out of 3,000). Machinery damage accounted for over one-in-three incidents globally (1,311), followed by collision (222) and fires (178), with the number of fires increasing by almost 10%.
Ukraine impact: safety and insuranceThe shipping industry has been affected on multiple fronts by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with the loss of life and vessels in the Black Sea, disruption to trade, and the growing burden of sanctions. It also faces challenges to day-to-day operations, with knock-on effects for crew, the cost and availability of bunker fuel, and the potential for growing cyber risk.
The invasion has further ramifications for a global maritime industry already facing shortages. Russian seafarers account for just over 10% of the world’s 1.89 million workforce, while around 4% come from Ukraine. These seafarers may struggle to return home or rejoin ships at the end of contracts. Meanwhile, a prolonged conflict is likely to have deeper consequences, potentially reshaping global trade in energy and other commodities. An expanded ban on Russian oil could contribute to pushing up the cost of bunker fuel and impacting availability, potentially pushing ship owners to use alternative fuels. If such fuels are of substandard quality, this may result in machinery breakdown claims in future. At the same time, security agencies continue to warn of a heightened prospect of cyber risks for the shipping sector such as GPS jamming, Automatic Identification System (AIS) spoofing and electronic interference.
“The insurance industry is likely to see a number of claims under specialist war policies from vessels damaged or lost to sea mines, rocket attacks and bombings in conflict zones,” explains Justus Heinrich, Global Product Leader, Marine Hull, at AGCS. “Insurers may also receive claims under marine war policies from vessels and cargo blocked or trapped in Ukrainian ports and coastal waters.”
The evolving range of sanctions against Russian interests presents a sizeable challenge. Violating sanctions can result in severe enforcement action, yet compliance can be a considerable burden. It can be difficult to establish the ultimate owner of a vessel, cargo or counterparty. Sanctions also apply to various parts of the transport supply chain, including banking and insurance, as well as maritime support services, which makes compliance even more complex.
A burning issue: fires on boardDuring the past year, fires on board the roll-on roll-off (ro-ro) car carrier Felicity Ace and the container ship X-Press Pearl both resulted in total losses. Cargo fires are indeed a priority concern. There have been over 70 reported fires on container ships alone in the past five years, the report notes. Fires often start in containers, which can be the result of non-/mis-declaration of hazardous cargo, such as chemicals and batteries – around 5% of containers shipped may consist of undeclared dangerous goods. Fires on large vessels can spread quickly and be difficult to control, often resulting in the crew abandoning ship, which can significantly increase the final cost of an incident.
Fires have also become a major loss driver for car carriers. Among other causes, they can start in cargo holds, caused by malfunctions or electrical short circuits in vehicles, while the open decks can allow them to spread quickly. The growing numbers of electric vehicles (EVs) transported by sea brings further challenges, given existing counter-measure systems may not respond effectively in the event of an EV blaze. Losses can be expensive, given the value of the car cargo and the cost of wreck removal and pollution mitigation.
When large vessels get into trouble, emergency response and finding a port of refuge can be challenging. Specialist salvage equipment, tugs, cranes, barges and port infrastructure are required, which adds time and cost to a response. The X-Press Pearl, which sank after it was refused refuge by two ports following a fire – the ports were unable or unwilling to discharge a leaking cargo of nitric acid – is one of several incidents where container ships have had difficulty finding a safe haven. Meanwhile, the salvage operation for the car carrier Golden Ray, which capsized in the US in 2019, took almost two years and cost in excess of $800mn.
“Too often, what should be a manageable incident on a large vessel can end in a total loss. Salvage is a growing concern. Environmental concerns are contributing to rising salvage and wreck removal costs as ship owners and insurers are expected to go the extra mile to protect the environment and local economies,” says Khanna. “Previously, a wreck might have been left in-situ if it posed no danger to navigation. Now, authorities want wrecks removed and the marine environment restored, irrespective of cost.”
Higher salvage costs, along with the burden of larger losses more generally, are a cost increasingly borne by cargo owners and their insurers. “’General average’, the legal process by which cargo owners proportionately share losses and the cost of saving a maritime venture, has become a frequency event, as well as a severity event, with the increase in the number of large ships involved in fires, groundings and container losses at sea compared with five years ago,” explains Régis Broudin, Global Head of Marine Claims at AGCS. It was declared in both the Ever Forward and Ever Given incidents. The large container ship Ever Forward ran aground in the US in March 2022, and was stuck for over a month before it was freed, almost a year to the day after its sister vessel, Ever Given blocked the Suez Canal.
Post-pandemic world brings new risk challengesWhile the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in few direct claims for the marine insurance sector, the subsequent impact on crew welfare and the boom in shipping and port congestion raises potential safety concerns. Demand for crew is high, yet many skilled and experienced seafarers are leaving the industry. A serious shortfall of officers is predicted within five years.
For those who remain, morale is low as commercial pressures, compliance duties and workloads are running high. Such a work situation is prone to mistakes – 75% of shipping incidents involve human error, AGCS analysis shows.
The economic rebound from Covid-19 lockdowns has created a boom time for shipping, with record increases in charter and freight rates. While this is a positive for shipping companies, higher freight rates and a shortage of container ship capacity are tempting some operators to use bulk carriers, or consider converting tankers, to transport containers. The use of non-container vessels to carry containers raises questions around stability, firefighting capabilities, and securing cargo. Bulk carriers are not designed to carry containers, which could impact their maneuvering characteristics in bad weather, and crew may not be able to respond appropriately in an incident.
With demand for shipping high, some owners are also extending the working life of vessels. Even before the pandemic, the average age of vessels was rising. Although there are many well-managed and maintained fleets composed of older vessels, analysis has shown older container and cargo vessels (15 to 25 years old) are more likely to result in claims, as they suffer from corrosion, while systems and machinery are more prone to breakdown. The average age of a vessel involved in a total loss over the past 10 years is 28.
Shipping bottlenecks and port congestionCovid-19 measures in China, a surge in consumer demand, and the Ukraine invasion have all been factors in ongoing unprecedented port congestion which puts crews, port handlers and facilities under additional pressure.
“Loading and unloading vessels is a particularly risky operation, where small mistakes can have big consequences. Busy container ports have little space, while the experienced labor required to handle the containers properly is in short supply. Add in fast turnaround times and this may result in a heightened risk environment,” explains Heinrich.
Climate change: transition problemsWith momentum gathering behind international efforts to tackle climate change, the shipping industry is coming under increasing pressure to accelerate its sustainability efforts, the report notes, given its greenhouse gas emissions grew by around 10% between 2012 and 2018.
Decarbonization will require big investments in green technology and alternative fuels. A growing number of vessels are already switching to liquefied natural gas (LNG), while other alternative fuels are under development, including ammonia, hydrogen and methanol, as well as electric-powered ships. The transition to alternative fuels will likely bring heightened risk of machinery breakdown claims, among other risks, as new technology beds down and as crews adapt to new procedures.