Commerzbank: Preliminary operating result for the first quarter above expectations – outlook for the 2022 financial year confirmed
Double-digit growth in revenues to €2.8bn (Q1 2021: €2.5bn) more than compensates for increase in risk result to minus €464m (Q1 2021: minus €149m)
Preliminary operating result at €544m (Q1 2021: €538m) – net result of €284m expected (Q1 2021: €133m)
Manfred Knof: “We have made a good start to the new financial year. Thanks to strong customer business we have improved our operating result although the economic consequences of the Russian war against Ukraine have impacted on our risk result.”
On the basis of preliminary figures, Commerzbank has increased its operating result in the first quarter 2022 slightly to €544 million (Q1 2021: €538 million) which significantly exceeds analyst consensus of €282 million. Revenues improved thanks to strong customer business in all operating areas by 12% to €2,795 million (Q1 2021: €2,492 million). Net interest income rose by 12% to €1,401 million (Q1 2021: €1,254 million) which primarily reflects higher revenues at mBank as a consequence of the rises in the Polish interest rates. Net commission income increased by a further 2% to €972 million (Q1 2021: €951 million), following on from a strong result in the previous year.
With the double-digit growth in revenues, Commerzbank more than compensated for the charges as a consequence of the Russian war against Ukraine. The risk result in the first quarter is to be minus €464 million (Q1 2021: minus €149 million). This increase results from provisioning effects of about half a billion euros in connection with the war in Ukraine. In total, the Bank has now formed top level adjustments (TLA) of €713 million as additional provisions.
All in all, the preliminary net result in the first quarter after taxes and minority interests amounted to €284 million. In the first quarter of 2021 this figure was €133 million.
Commerzbank continues to expect a net result of more than €1 billion for the 2022 financial year and confirms all its other 2022 financial targets. This is also true for the risk result, which is still expected to be less than €700 million in 2022 taking into account the top level adjustments which have been formed. The outlook is based on the assumptions that there will be no substantial increase in the provisions for the Swiss francs loan portfolio of mBank and that the economic effects of the Russia-Ukraine war remain contained.
“We have made a good start to the new financial year. Thanks to strong customer business we have increased our operating result although the economic consequences of the Russian war against Ukraine have impacted on our risk result. We are sticking by our targets for the year as a whole,” said Manfred Knof, Chief Executive Officer of Commerzbank.
The figures stated in this press release are preliminary. Commerzbank will publish its final figures for the first quarter 2022 on 12 May 2022.
New EIB report: Banks in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe revise outlook for the coming months sharply
Demand for loans by small and medium-sized companies (SMEs) and corporates might face sharply tightening credit standards.
Non-performing loans could increase for the first time since 2015 in the region.
A new EIB report published today, the CESEE Bank Lending Survey, provides insights into banking group activities and business expectations in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE). The report analyses portfolios, demand and supply for financing and the development of non-performing loans. The new edition includes a special analysis on banking group expectations before and after the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
©EIB
According to the new survey, the banking sector in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe is likely to face one of its worst years since the global financial crisis in 2007-2008 due to the coronavirus pandemic. From a banking sector perspective, the region entered the crisis on a strong footing, with easing credit standards and robust demand for loans in the past six months. According to the new EIB survey, however, banking groups in the region are expecting the overall demand for financing to contract sharply, credit standards to tighten significantly and loan approval rates to decline. With decreasing loan application quality, non-performing loans are expected to increase for the first time since 2015.
Read the full report
“The coronavirus pandemic is an unprecedented crisis. But coordinated action and support at a European level has and will be unprecedented as well,” said EIB Vice-President Lilyana Pavlova. “In light of the grim expectations by the banking sector in the region and an increased likelihood of declining financing opportunities, we are particularly glad to have approved the pan-European Guarantee Fund. It is a timely and targeted response to alleviate the hardship endured, especially by entrepreneurs and smaller companies. We will work closely with national institutions to make sure that businesses in need can quickly access the support provided by the EIB.”
“The COVID-19 shock has changed the expectations of banking groups in the CESEE region significantly. Higher uncertainty will persist over the coming months. For the banking sector to return to pre-crisis activity levels and to ensure financing for smaller companies and corporates, providing support through instruments like the European Guarantee Fund and others will be essential. They can support a faster and forceful rebound,” said EIB Chief Economist Debora Revoltella.
The CESEE Bank Lending Survey is part of regular reporting from the EIB, IMF, EBRD and World Bank for the European bank coordination “Vienna Initiative”, a framework for safeguarding the financial stability of emerging Europe. The survey for the new edition of the report was conducted as the COVID-19 pandemic unfolded. Previous editions are accessible here.
Demand for loans
Banking groups operating in the CESEE region reported a continued increase in demand for loans in the last six months. However, demand in the coming months is expected to drop sharply. Before the pandemic, banking groups were expecting a further increase. The contraction in demand is expected to come from households rather than from corporates or SMEs. This suggests a sustained need for finance from the latter two, to meet liquidity and short-term needs.
Supply conditions for financing
In the months before the pandemic, banks in the CESEE region were mildly easing credit standards. Expectations are now that standards will sharply tighten across the client spectrum. Many factors that positively supported an easing of standards are expected to turn negative. In addition to the local and international economic environment, non-performing loans, the quality of loan applications and local capital conditions are expected to exert significant negative pressure.
Non-performing loans
Credit quality has continued to improve over the last six months. The positive trend is expected to invert dramatically. The vast majority of banks (64%) in the region anticipate that the number of non-performing loans will increase.
Αιφνιδιαστική υποβάθμιση του ελληνικού outlook από την Fitch
Σε υποβάθμιση του outlook της Ελλάδας σε σταθερό από θετικό προχώρησε αργά χθες το βράδυ και χωρίς καμιά προηγούμενη ένδειξη ή άλλη προειδοποίηση ο οίκος αξιολόγησης Fitch.
Ο οίκος επικαλέστηκε την σημαντική επίδραση της κρίσης του κορωνοϊού στην οικονομική δραστηριότητα, στα δημόσια οικονομικά και στο ισοζύγιο τρεχουσών συναλλαγών της χώρας. Προβλέπει μείωση του πραγματικού ΑΕΠ κατά 8,1% φέτος, η οποία θα αντικατοπτρίζει τα απαραίτητα περιοριστικά μέτρα για την επιβράδυνση της εξάπλωσης της πανδημίας, την παγκόσμια ύφεση και την απότομη πτώση των εσόδων στον κλάδο του τουρισμού.
Ο οίκος, όπως αναφέρει στην αιτιολογική του έκθεση, αναμένει μια ορισμένη ανάκαμψη της δραστηριότητας το δεύτερο εξάμηνο του τρέχοντος έτους και το 2021, με την αύξηση του ΑΕΠ να φτάνει το 5,1% την ερχόμενη χρονιά. Με την υποσημείωση όμως ότι η καλή εικόνα της αντιμετώπισης της πανδημίας θα εξακολουθήσει και αν δεν υπάρξουν αρνητικές εξελίξεις στο πεδίο αυτό.
Η έκταση της πτώσης του ΑΕΠ και η επακόλουθη ανάκαμψη είναι ωστόσο εξαιρετικά αβέβαια μεγέθη, σύμφωνα με την Fitch.
Ειδική αναφορά γίνεται στον τουρισμό, που συμβάλλει περίπου κατά 10% στο ΑΕΠ, σύμφωνα με στοιχεία του Παγκόσμιου Συμβουλίου Ταξιδιών και Τουρισμού και ο οποίος δεν θα μπορέσει εφέτος να βοηθήσει δυναμικά την ελληνική οικονομία να συγκρατήσει τις απώλειες.
Η συρρίκνωση της οικονομικής δραστηριότητας και τα μέτρα στήριξης από την κυβέρνηση ανατρέπουν την δημοσιονομική εικόνα. Η κυβέρνηση ανακοίνωσε μέτρα που αντιστοιχούν σε 5 δισ. ευρώ (2,9% του ΑΕΠ), ενώ αναμένονται επιπλέον 2 δισ. ευρώ από την ευρωπαϊκή στήριξη.
«Εκτιμούμε, τονίζει η Fitch, ότι το ισοζύγιο της γενικής κυβέρνησης θα μετακινηθεί από εκτιμώμενο πλεόνασμα 1,5% του ΑΕΠ το 2019 σε έλλειμμα 7,4% του ΑΕΠ για το 2020. Στη συνέχεια αναμένουμε ότι το έλλειμμα θα μειωθεί σε έναν βαθμό στο 4,6% του ΑΕΠ το 2021. Το πρωτογενές αποτέλεσμα θα “γυρίσει” επίσης σε αρνητικό φέτος, μετά από τέσσερα συνεχόμενα έτη πλεονασμάτων και υπεραποδόσεων στους δημοσιονομικούς στόχους».
Saxo Bank Q2 Outlook: Commodities look to fiscal bazooka for support
The global economy is currently dealing with the biggest demand shock since the global financial crisis, plus a global supply shock and an oil price war which is driving a destruction of capital. The lockdowns in China at the beginning of the outbreak have now spread to the rest of the world, most noticeably Europe and the US. The short to medium term result is going to be a slump in global growth, rising unemployment, rising mortgage rates and lower consumer confidence.
The second quarter is likely to begin with the focus squarely on the price-damaging impact of the dramatic drop in demand for many key commodities: from crude oil and industrial metals to some agriculture commodities. But as coronavirus continues to spread it is very possible that the supply outlook will become challenging as well. Miners and producers may begin to feel the impact of staff shortages and breakdown in supply chains. The impact of lower fuel prices is being felt from agriculture to mining as it drives down input costs. However, the potential risks to supply could see some markets find support sooner than the demand outlook suggests.
Without making any price predictions, we’ve taken a look at some of the commodities that could potentially benefit from the current troubling developments.
The impact on global growth and demand will be significant. With millions of people around the world being ordered to work from home and refrain from traveling, the demand for transportation fuel has collapsed. The drop in consumer confidence, meanwhile, will impact demand for consumer goods.
The biggest effect has so far been seen across the energy sector. A combination of strong non-OPEC supply growth and a weakening outlook for global demand led to the inevitable breakdown of OPEC+ co-operation on March 6.
Instead, Saudi Arabia started an all-out price war by dumping the price while ramping up production. Whether the intended target was Russia or high-cost producers in the US shale oil industry, the impact on oil has been devastating. If the aim was shock and awe, the timing has been perfect — global demand has fallen off a cliff as the global community goes into lockdown to combat COVID-19.
Brent crude oil has dropped to an 18-year low. The SPDR Energy Select ETF (XLE), representing some of the biggest US oil companies, has more than halved since December. A group of 12 major independent US oil and gas producers, meanwhile, have seen their market cap collapse to below $90 billion from above $300 billion in December.
Given the fact that most oil producers (including Russia and Saudi Arabia) are currently selling at a price well below their budget break-evens, we will eventually see the market recover. However, before that happens the virus either needs to show signs of retreating or we need to see a meaningful and long-overdue reduction among high-cost production companies in places like the US and Brazil. In addition, the long road to recovery back towards the $50 to $60 range in Brent will be hampered by the rapid rise in global stocks. These will need to be reduced before Brent can recover — we recommend you to take a look at Peter Garnry’s assessment of which companies could end up being potential winners and losers. Staying with energy sector, it is our belief that a meaningful reduction in US shale oil production over the coming months may lead to a long-overdue reduction in associated gas production. Rising production, a mild winter across the northern hemisphere and the virus-related drop in activity have all helped send global gas prices sharply lower. US gas prices touched a 25-year low in March. Depending on how quickly production slows, we see gas prices rise beyond levels currently reflected in the forward market.
Gold’s failure to rally as COVID-19 spread and economic uncertainty rose has brought back memories of 2008. During the early part of the GFC, all assets were sold as investors deleveraged to realise cash or pay for losses elsewhere. In the early weeks of the crisis, gold suffered a 27% sell-off to $725/oz before beginning an ascent which eventually took it to $1920/oz.
The rally started in gold mining stocks before moving to gold and it took another few months before the stock market finally bottomed out. With this in mind, we are keeping a close eye on gold mining companies through the Vaneck Major Gold Miners ETF (Ticker: GDX:arcx). We also have to keep in mind that the cost of fuel, which accounts for 20% of mining costs, has collapsed. Gold miners have therefore, at least for now, not suffered the hit that the drop in gold would otherwise imply.
We believe the long-term reasons for holding gold have, if anything, been strengthened by current developments. While official interest rates have been slashed, corporate bond yields have been rising. The broken transmission between central bank actions and developments on the ground is likely to trigger a major fiscal and potential inflationary response from governments around the world. US 10-year real yields, another major driver of gold, have risen sharply in response to much lower inflation expectations. We believe this move is unsustainable and that real yields will eventually move back into deeper negative territory.
The aggressive sell-off in crude oil hasn’t helped gold. The Russian central bank has been a strong buyer of gold in recent years. That buying has now stopped and depending on how long it takes before crude oil recovers, we could potentially see Russia become a net-seller. After all, they will have to cover the shortfall of oil slumping below their budget break-even, which is somewhere close to $40/b.
Silver’s complete collapse to an 11-year low in March drove its relative value to gold down by more than 50% below the five-year average. A combination of inadequate liquidity to withstand the aggressive dash-for-cash phenomenon and its correlation to economic growth are helping drive the steep loss. Once the market stabilises, we see the potential for a strong recovery with traders focusing on its relative cheapness to gold.
HG copper, which started the year with a forecast of a small supply deficit, finally broke key support at $2.50/lb. However, with the outlook for aggressive fiscal measures and the potential risk to supply from virus-related disruptions, we see risk being skewed to the upside in Q2.